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If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed. If Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). Outcome verified by official election authority responsible for certifying results in

If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ed Gallrein runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ed Gallrein will be summed. If Ed Gallrein wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ed Gallrein loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ed Gallrein ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ed Gallrein is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). Outcome verified by official election authority responsible for certifying results in

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Key stats

Expiry
May 19, 2027(361 days)
Interest
$3,680,793.02
Vol (24H)
$7,480.10
Total
$6.2M

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by May 19, 2027, 2:00 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event
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Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.