Coinbase Quantum Advisory Council Publishes Position Paper on Quantum Computing and Blockchain
Today, the Coinbase Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain is publishing its first position paper, a comprehensive assessment of what quantum computing means for crypto, what's actually at risk, and what the industry needs to do about it.
The board is made up of leading researchers from Stanford, UT Austin, the Ethereum Foundation, Eigen Labs, Bar-Ilan University, and UC Santa Barbara. The full paper is available here. Below is a summary of what they found.
The bottom line: your crypto is safe today, but the industry needs to start preparing
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could one day break the cryptography that secures digital assets across major blockchains. The board has high confidence this type of machine will eventually be built.
But it doesn't exist yet. The kind of quantum computer that could threaten crypto would need to be orders of magnitude more powerful than anything available today. Expert timelines point to at least a decade as likely, but cannot rule out a significantly shorter timeline.
That said, upgrading the security of an entire decentralized ecosystem, blockchains, wallets, exchanges, hardware, takes years. The board's view is straightforward: the time to start preparing is now, not when it's urgent.
What's actually at risk, and what isn't
Not all of crypto is equally exposed:
Bitcoin’s core infrastructure is largely safe. Bitcoin mining, hash functions, and the chain's historical record are not meaningfully threatened by quantum computing.
The real vulnerability is wallet-level. The cryptography that proves you own your assets, your digital signature, is the part a quantum computer could eventually break. Wallets where certain key information is publicly visible on-chain are the most exposed. For Bitcoin, an estimated 6.9 million BTC fall into this category.
Proof-of-stake chains have additional exposure in the signature schemes validators use to secure the network. Ethereum has a clear roadmap to address this in the near future.
Solutions exist, deployment is the challenge
The cryptographic community has been developing quantum-resistant alternatives for over 20 years. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already standardized several new schemes. The building blocks are there.
The hard part is rolling them out. New quantum-safe signatures are significantly larger than today's, which affects transaction speed, costs, and storage. And migrating millions of wallets across decentralized networks, where every user has to take action, is a coordination challenge unlike anything traditional finance faces.
Major blockchains are moving, at different speeds
Bitcoin is exploring new address formats that better protect keys, though the community hasn't committed to a full upgrade plan yet.
Ethereum has published a detailed migration roadmap that could actually improve network scalability in the process.
Solana, Algorand, and Aptos have each begun offering or planning quantum-resistant options for users.
Layer 2 networks like Optimism have announced transition plans with specific deadlines.
The paper reviews each chain's approach in detail.
One tough question every chain will face
What happens to wallets that never upgrade? Lost keys, inactive holders, and abandoned accounts mean some assets will inevitably be left exposed. Each blockchain community will need to decide whether to freeze, revoke, or leave those assets vulnerable, a decision with real implications for users and markets. The board recommends these decisions be made and communicated publicly as soon as possible.
What Coinbase is doing
We established this advisory board to make sure our security strategy is driven by science, not headlines. This paper is the first output, not the last.
We're building our systems to be flexible enough to adopt new cryptographic standards quickly, working with hardware and infrastructure partners on upgrade readiness, and sharing this research publicly because quantum preparedness is a challenge the entire industry needs to tackle together. We’re also working with developers and industry experts to help coordinate these upgrades as an industry. No one player can do this alone, it will take all of us working together.
