Put your money where your mind is

A prediction market lets you trade on what you think will happen in the real world.

Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The live price reflects the market’s odds—for example, a price of $0.65 suggests a 65% implied chance of the event occurring. You simply buy “Yes” if you think it will happen, or “No” if you think it won’t. If you’re right, you earn $1 per winning contract, minus what you paid (and any fees). 

As news breaks and new information surfaces, the price—and the implied probability—continuously adjusts based on what the crowd believes will happen. As news breaks and new information surfaces, the price—and the implied probability—continuously adjusts based on what the crowd believes. You don’t have to wait for the final event result you can react in real time by buying or selling before the event is settled, locking in gains or cutting losses as the odds move.

When you buy “Yes”, you’re betting the event will happen. If it does, you earn $1 per contract.

When you buy “No”, you’re betting the event will not happen. If it doesn’t, you earn $1 per contract.

You can trade thousands of event contracts in sports, crypto, economics, politics, entertainment, technology, science, and more. New markets are added regularly, all with clear rules and settlement policies based on the result.

You can fund trades with the available cash (USD and USDC) in your Coinbase account. When you close positions, available funds flow back to your main Coinbase account.

Once the event result is confirmed:

• Each correct (“winning”) contract settles at $1

• Each incorrect (“losing”) contract settles at $0

Your total payout = $1 × number of winning contracts.

Your profit = total payout − what you originally paid (minus any fees).

For example, you buy 10 “Yes” contracts at $0.40 each, spending $4.00.

• If the event happens, you receive 10 × $1.00 = $10.00.

• Your profit is $10.00 − $4.00 = $6.00 (minus fees).

You also don’t have to wait for the final result. As news breaks and market sentiment shifts, prices can move. You can:

• Sell your contracts at a higher price to lock in gains, or sell at a lower price to cut losses

• Your profit or loss in this case is simply the difference between your buy price and your sell price (minus any fees).

Every market has specific rules that define exactly how its outcome is decided, before you ever place a trade.

When the event occurs, an independent, regulated exchange determines the result using a predefined “source of truth”—for example, official statistics, market data, or trusted news outlets.

Settlement is based only on that source, which is clearly listed in the contract details.

You can trade prediction markets 24/7, so you can act whenever news breaks or your views change.

The only downtime is a brief weekly maintenance window on Thursdays, 3:00–5:00 am ET, when trading is temporarily paused.