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Crypto ETFs, one year later

Crypto ETFs, one year later

Since launching in January 2024, spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $100 billion in assets under management.

There’s never a dull moment on the blockchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:

Bitcoin jumped on new inflation data. Plus, more U.S. states are mulling strategic bitcoin reserves, and stablecoin use cases are on the rise.

How crypto ETFs performed in their first year. Spot bitcoin ETFs became a blockbuster success since launching in January 2024. What could unfold for crypto ETFs in year two?

The week in numbers. The amount of venture capital crypto projects raised in Q4 of 2024, Bitcoin’s new all-time high mining difficulty, and more stats to know.

MARKET BYTES

Crypto prices seesaw as inflation picture continues to evolve

Crypto prices went on a bit of a rollercoaster ride this week, with BTC dipping to around $89,000 on Monday — the lowest price since November — before rebounding above $99,000 on Wednesday.

What’s behind the volatility? As CNBC notes, crypto prices are in a “tug of war” as fears of inflation meet optimism over the second Trump administration’s crypto plans (more on this below). In terms of inflation headlines, analysts point to a recent set of economic reports as a major driver of recent swings.

Last week, stronger-than expected payroll numbers led analysts to predict fewer interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with Bank of America analysts even suggesting that a rate hike could be possible. 

But on Tuesday, a different set of numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that pointed toward cooling inflation reignited hopes for potential rate cuts — an outlook that was further buoyed Wednesday by news that the latest consumer price index showed “lower-than-expected core inflation figures.” 

Here’s more on Trump’s possible plans and other market stories you should know about…

Crypto regulations are poised to change under Trump  

New reports from the Washington Post, Decrypt, Reuters, and other outlets  outlined some of President-elect Trump’s potential crypto plans for next week’s inauguration day and beyond.

“President-elect Donald Trump is poised to issue a crypto-related executive order,” reports Decrypt. An executive order could “establish a presidential crypto council, made up of around 20 industry leaders” and “is also likely to instruct the SEC to ditch a rule known as SAB 121 that discourages American banks from holding crypto,” according to Decrypt’s sources

  • Up next... Crypto rules are a “clear” priority for the Trump transition team, reports the Washington Post, with a focus on issues including eliminating “debanking” (or government agencies pressuring banks to avoid working with crypto companies). And Reuters notes that Trump’s pick to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Paul Atkins, “signals a potential sea change in the agency's crypto asset enforcement program.”

New Hampshire and North Dakota consider “strategic bitcoin reserve” 

Legislators in both New Hampshire and North Dakota have recently submitted proposals that would allow their states to buy and hold digital assets like BTC, joining Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, which are all considering similar bills

The bills come as an increasing number of institutions have added bitcoin or BTC ETFs to their treasuries, from Wisconsin’s state pension fund to Italy’s largest bank

  • What about the federal government? The U.S. government already has crypto holdings worth around $20 billion that largely come from asset seizures. But some are hoping that the Trump administration will push for the government to actively buy and hold BTC, as the president-elect suggested he might on the campaign trail.

Real-world use cases for stablecoins continue to emerge  

One of the biggest crypto storylines of the last year has been the increased adoption of stablecoins by many of the biggest firms on Wall Street, from PayPal to Visa and beyond

According to DeFi Llama data cited in a new Bloomberg report, the total value of circulating stablecoins surged from $140 billion at the end of 2023 to more than $200 billion in early 2025, as the mostly dollar-pegged tokens have been adopted for a huge range of cross-border transactions.

As Bloomberg notes, everything from Dubai real estate to transnational sales of palm oil can now be facilitated almost seamlessly using new stablecoin-powered apps: “Where previously stablecoins were predominantly used by traders as a conduit for swapping between digital assets and traditional currencies, there is evidence to suggest that the purported dollar surrogates are increasingly relied on for cross-border trades.”

  • The Fed says…“[Stablecoins] reduce transaction fees, settle almost immediately, and attract crypto-savvy customers, helping businesses stay competitive in a digital-first world,” as a blog post from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta put it this week.

HAPPY COINAVERSARY

Looking back at spot bitcoin ETFs’ blockbuster first year

It’s been almost exactly one year since spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) debuted on Jan. 11, 2024. In the 12 months since, the new investment class has transformed crypto markets by attracting billions of dollars of new capital, normalizing crypto to a new class of investors, and becoming one of the most successful ETF launches in the history of financial markets (no big deal!).

BTC ETFs now have approximately $110 billion in assets under management (AUM) — representing more than 1% of the entire ETF market — and many analysts believe 2025 will see that number grow further. 

“I think the big shock in 2025 is that inflows into bitcoin ETFs will accelerate rather than slowing down,” Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan told CNBC this week. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the first year of crypto ETFs.

The ‘Street’ loves Bitcoin

The first year of trading for spot bitcoin ETFs ushered in more than $36 billion of net inflows, as bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative increasingly became accepted by investors on Wall Street and beyond.

According to Bloomberg analysts, four of the 12 new bitcoin ETFs (those from BlackRock, Ark Invest, Bitwise, and Fidelity) are among the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time, with the largest of these new products, BlackRock’s IBIT, earning the title of most successful debut in the ETF industry’s 35-year history. In addition, total AUM for spot bitcoin ETFs has nearly matched the entire market for gold ETFs — a massive feat considering gold ETFs have been trading for two decades. 

The meteoric rise of the ETFs represents a paradigm shift in investors’ view of bitcoin. A study commissioned by the asset manager Bitwise found that 22% of financial advisors are now allocating crypto to their client portfolios, with the ETF launches serving as a major catalyst. Additionally, more than 1,000 institutional investors own shares of spot bitcoin ETFs, as well as the state pension funds of Michigan and Wisconsin, and the endowment fund of at least one private U.S. university. 

Looking ahead, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart says that at least another $15 billion of inflows this year is “a foregone conclusion assuming the economy avoids a recession,” and that bitcoin ETFs will grow to triple the size of gold ETFs within the next three to five years. 

Investors are still warming up to Ethereum ETFs

Spot Ethereum ETFs, which launched in July, were generally not expected to attract as much capital as their bitcoin counterparts. Still, they’ve underperformed the early expectations of some analysts, in part due to a lack of consensus around ETH’s narrative compared to bitcoin’s “digital gold” moniker, according Bloomberg’s Seyffart.

Until recently, the ETH products saw net outflows (due to investors redeeming funds from Grayscale’s product after its conversion from a trust into an ETF), but demand began to ramp up in the last quarter of 2024.

To date, the nine spot Ethereum ETFs on the market have amassed around $11 billion in AUM. And while that’s still just a fraction of what the bitcoin products have attracted, there are signs that interest in the products could keep rising.

In December, ETH ETFs saw more than $2 billion of net inflows in their biggest month ever, nearly doubling November’s net inflow of just over $1 billion. With some analysts predicting ETH could outperform BTC this year, some traders could potentially pivot more into ETH ETFs. 

Dozens of new crypto ETFs could hit the market in 2025

BTC and ETH ETFs may soon have some company, with many analysts predicting a wide range of other tokens will get the ETF treatment in 2025. 

"Product innovation in the U.S. is just getting started,” said Federico Brokate, head of U.S. business for digital asset manager 21Shares.

The SEC is considering applications from firms for ETFs that would hold Solana, XRP, HBAR, and even an index of cryptocurrencies, similar to the S&P 500. A recent report from JPMorgan estimated that ETFs for XRP could attract inflows between $4–$8 billion, and those for SOL could bring in between $3–$6 billion.

Beyond spot ETFs for altcoins, some analysts also expect to see some entirely new crypto-investment products, like options-based crypto ETFs, equities ETFs that are denominated in bitcoin, and even “bitcoin bond” ETFs. According to ETF Store president Nate Geraci, there could be “at least 50” non-spot crypto ETFs launched this year. 

“I expect the Trump administration to move quickly on providing clarity over which digital assets are securities versus non-security commodities,” Geraci said. “Everything falls in line from there, making 2025 ‘The Year of Crypto ETFs’.”

NUMBERS TO KNOW

110.45 trillion

Bitcoin’s new all-time high mining difficulty, meaning that it's about 110.45 trillion times harder to mine a current block of Bitcoin than the blockchain’s original blocks back in 2009. The increased difficulty has put pressure on miners, who need to invest in higher computational power to participate.

$4 billion

Amount of venture funding raised for crypto projects in the fourth quarter of 2024, the “strongest quarter for crypto investment in two years,” The Block notes. In terms of capital raised, infrastructure investments led the pack, followed by crypto financial services.

10

The number of consecutive weeks that MicroStrategy has purchased bitcoin to add to its balance sheet. After adding $243 million of BTC over the last week, MicroStrategy now holds a total of 447,470 BTC, or 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

TUNE IN

How stablecoins are making payments faster and cheaper

In the latest episode of Coinbase’s “Evolving Money” podcast, created in collaboration with Bloomberg Media Studios, Paypal Senior Vice President Jose Fernandez da Ponte explores how stablecoins are making payments faster, cheaper, and easier for individuals and businesses around the globe.

Start listening today on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

TOKEN TRIVIA

How often is Bitcoin’s blockchain updated with new transactions?

A

Every 10 minutes

B

Once per hour

C

Once per day

D

Twice per day

Find the answer below.

Trivia Answer

A

Every 10 minutes