BTC bounced back above $63K, but can it last?
There’s never a dull moment onchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
How the Iran conflict and the SpaceX IPO could be impacting crypto. And why MasterCard just unveiled a crypto-powered product for AI agents.
The first traditional mortgage backed by BTC was just issued. What are the advantages and how big could this market become?
Who will win the pro basketball finals? See what experts and prediction market traders have to say about Game 5, series MVP, and the championship.
MARKET BYTES
Why interest-rate fears, the Iran conflict, and the SpaceX IPO could all be shaking crypto markets
For the first time since 2024, bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week, as markets reacted to Strategy selling a small amount of its holdings, continued geopolitical tensions in Iran and beyond, and a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report that increased some traders’ fear that the Federal Reserve might raise rates later this year.
This week, prices began to stabilize, with bitcoin rising above $64,000 on Monday and sitting around $63,000 on Thursday. Of course, bitcoin prices remain well below the $80,000-ish level they saw in early May or the $126,000-plus all-time high they saw last October, with analysts noting that many of the factors from last week remain in play.
Tensions in Iran were on the rise this week, driving oil prices higher and many asset classes (including stocks and gold) lower, even though crypto seemed to be less impacted. A new report showed U.S. inflation hitting three-year highs, increasing fears of potential rate hikes. And some capital could be rotating out of crypto in preparation to be deployed into SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, which is scheduled for Friday.
Here’s more news you should know…
More than 200 crypto organizations urged Senate leadership to schedule a vote for the CLARITY act
Earlier this week, a coalition of more than 200 crypto firms and advocacy organizations — including Coinbase, Ripple, Andreessen Horowitz, and Circle — called for Senate leaders John Thune (R-SD) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to swiftly bring the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY act to a floor vote.
The CLARITY Act, which passed out of the Senate Banking Committee via a bipartisan vote last month, would answer some of the biggest questions hanging over the U.S. crypto industry. The bill would define the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as the agency overseeing crypto markets, codify the right to self-custody of crypto assets, and create legal definitions for key crypto terms including “mature blockchain” and “digital commodity.”
With many competing priorities and a tight timeline before summer break, the legislation’s near-term odds are very hard to predict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) urged the senate to act quickly, with Lummis warning that the next real legislative window for the bill is “likely 2030.”
Odds are… Prediction market traders remain optimistic, with 68% saying that the bill will gain the 60-plus votes it needs to pass out of the Senate by the end of the year.
Mastercard launched blockchain-powered AI payments initiative with Coinbase, Stripe, and other firms
Even as crypto prices have been subdued in recent weeks, crypto adoption more broadly shows no signs of slowing down. A wide range of blockchain-based technologies — including stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets — are rapidly reshaping the global financial system.
This week, Mastercard announced a new service designed to allow AI agents to make and receive payments with software services, which could help streamline processes like autonomously booking travel or building websites. “The platform supports automated transactions across cards, bank accounts and stablecoins, while providing identity verification, spending controls and guaranteed settlement through Mastercard's network,” notes CoinDesk.
More than 30 companies have joined the Agent Pay for Machines (AP4M) initiative, including Coinbase, Stripe, Cloudflare, and Polygon Labs. Per CoinDesk, “permissions and credentials associated with AI agents will initially be recorded on the Polygon, Solana and Base blockchains.”
High confidence… In the last year, Coinbase announced crypto wallets designed for agentic use and x402, an open protocol that agents can interact with for payments. Mastercard says that AP4M adds another key component to the mix. As CoinDesk described the firm’s position, “Businesses and consumers need confidence that agents are interacting with legitimate counterparties and operating within authorized spending limits. Service providers, meanwhile, need assurance that they will be paid.”
HOUSE MONEY
The first bitcoin-backed traditional mortgage in America was just issued
The first-ever traditional mortgage backed by bitcoin and accepted by Fannie Mae was just issued to a couple in Michigan, and it could represent a look into the future of crypto-backed financial products. Crypto’s intersection with traditional finance is only deepening, but bitcoin’s integration with the $13 trillion mortgage market represents a significant step for the adoption of tokenized finance products.
Here’s everything you need to know.
How do crypto-backed mortgages work?
Crypto-backed mortgages are loans backed by a borrower’s crypto assets rather than traditional requirements, like cash, property, or credit scores. The first-ever Fannie Mae-accepted, BTC-backed loan was issued in collaboration with Coinbase and the mortgage lender Better, who are allowing users to take out mortgage loans backed by their BTC or USDC holdings.
One potential upside of crypto-backed mortgages is that they allow borrowers to receive a loan without having to liquidate their holdings or incur taxes.
Technically, there are two separate loans closed simultaneously, that are then combined into a single monthly payment. One is a standard Fannie Mae mortgage, and the second is a crypto-backed loan that funds the down payment.
A borrower buying a $500,000 home, for example, could obtain a $400,000 Fannie Mae mortgage and use a separate $100,000 loan for the down payment. To secure that down payment, they’d need $250,000 worth of bitcoin as collateral, or $125,000 worth of USDC, since the collateral pledge ratio for bitcoin-backed loans is roughly 2.5-to-1 and 1.25-to-1 for USDC.
Who received the first crypto-backed mortgage?
The first Fannie Mae-backed BTC mortgage was issued to Joe and Amy, a married couple in their early 30s living in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Joe said that he was searching for a way to use his bitcoin to buy a home, but didn’t want to have to sell his holdings for the down payment.
“Buying our first home has always been the goal, but I wasn’t willing to give up a decade of investing to get there,” said Joe. “With this mortgage, I didn’t have to choose.”
How big of a market could there be for crypto-backed mortgages?
Crypto-backed mortgages are still a nascent market — Better and Coinbase’s program isn’t expected to be fully rolled out until later this summer. But the demand is clear. Based on waitlist data, Better estimates there is around $250 million in projected loan volume awaiting approval. Of the waitlist, 76% of users are Coinbase customers, 37% hold $500,000 or more in crypto, and 63% expect to buy a home in the next six months.
Crypto mortgages that aren’t backed by Fannie Mae have also been growing in popularity. Milo, a crypto-backed lender, has already doled out more than $100 million in mortgage loans, and has a track record of zero margin calls. Ledn, another crypto lender, recently estimated that the bitcoin-backed loan industry overall could grow from roughly $3 billion today to $1 trillion within a decade.
PREDICTION MARKETS
Who will win the pro basketball finals?
Pro Basketball Finals Game 5: New York vs. San Antonio
San Antonio, 65%
What markets say: After a historic, 29-point comeback in Game 4, New York is in full command of the series. Still, traders see them as the underdog for their road game in San Antonio, given that the Texas team will be playing with their season on the line.
What analysts say: “With a raucous home crowd behind them, [San Antonio] should be rearing to get going Saturday in hopes of getting this awful taste out of their mouths.” – Bleacher Report
Pro Basketball Finals Series Winner: New York vs. San Antonio
New York, 81%
What markets say: New York’s 3-1 series lead has traders seeing the team as near-lock to win the title — just one team has ever come back from such a deficit.
What analysts say: “History says [New York] will end the series on Saturday, but it’s nearly as likely that they win the title in Game 6 at home. I wouldn’t plan on a Game 7, but this postseason has been full of surprises.” – The Athletic
Finals MVP Winner
Jalen Brunson, 55%
What markets say: When San Antonio ran up their 29 point lead in Game 4, Victor Wembanyama’s Finals MVP odds spiked as high as 62%. After their historic collapse, though, traders are banking on Jalen Brunson to take home the playoffs’ top individual prize. But OG Anunoby could be the dark horse – his probability to win is almost 30%, up from just 4% yesterday, following his game-winning tip-in.
What analysts say: “OG Anunoby’s tip-in to win already ranks as the biggest offensive rebound in New York history, one of the biggest in NBA Finals history, and could be the bucket that ultimately gives [New York] a championship, provided they cash in with one of their three elimination games.” – NBA.com
TOKEN TRIVIA
What is the smallest unit of a bitcoin?
A
1 Cryptopenny
B
0.01 USD
C
1 Satoshi
D
0.001 BTC
Find the answer below.
Trivia Answer
C
1 Satoshi
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