The future of AI and crypto
There’s never a dull moment onchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
Despite volatility, crypto keeps outperforming. Also: Strategy plans to buy a lot more BTC, and bitcoin ETFs see longest inflow streak since 2025.
The growing intersection of AI and crypto. How wallets, stablecoins, and other crypto tech are helping power the AI agent revolution.
Prediction markets on the Round of 16. The teams that traders are forecasting to win as the NCAA tournament rolls on.
MARKET BYTES
Markets swing on Iran conflict news, but crypto remains resilient compared to other assets
If you were just looking at crypto prices this week, volatility would probably be your main takeaway.
Bitcoin swung to around $68,000 over the weekend as the Iran conflict continued and oil prices spiked. Then on Monday, BTC rose past $71,800 after President Trump reported an easing of tensions, before dropping again to around $69,000 after Iran’s foreign ministry denied the administration’s claims. By Wednesday, it had returned above $71,000.
But if you zoom out, crypto remains remarkably sturdy compared to most other markets, including gold, which BTC has outperformed by 25% since the start of the conflict.
“A safe-haven asset falling to record losing streaks during an active and widening war breaks every historical precedent,” noted CoinDesk. “Bitcoin is holding [around] $70,000 on a Tuesday morning where everything else is deteriorating. Whether that's resilience or just the market waiting for the next headline to react to is the question the rest of the week will answer.”
Some major analysts are also issuing optimistic reports, with Wall Street brokerage Bernstein predicting that BTC has seen the bottom of this cycle and that $150,000 by the end of the year is a reasonable target.
Here’s more news to know this week.
Strategy unveils $44 billion plan to buy more BTC
As part of an ongoing plan to raise $84 billion by 2027 to acquire BTC, Strategy announced a new $44 billion plan that would see the firm sell a mix of common stock shares and two types of preferred shares over time.
The firm, which has been purchasing BTC at a steady clip in recent months, also bought another 1,031 BTC for about $76.6 million last week, bringing its total to 762,099 BTC.
“The new programs will allow Strategy to gradually issue shares into the market, rather than raising capital in a single transaction,” noted The Block. “Proceeds from similar programs have funded many of Strategy’s bitcoin purchases since early last year, with the company relying on a growing stack of issuance vehicles.”
Strategy stock is up around 10% in the last month, although it remains more than 50% down since 2026 peaks.
In ether news… The biggest Ethereum treasury company, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, bought another $138 million in ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 4.66 million ETH, or 3.86% of Ethereum’s total supply. (The firm’s goal is to own 5% of ETH’s supply.) “Crypto is demonstrating itself to be a good 'wartime' store of value,” said CEO Tom Lee.
BTC ETFs notch fourth straight week of inflows
For the first time since 2025, spot BTC ETFs have notched four straight weeks of inflows, totalling around $2 billion according to SoSo Value data.
Some analysts maintain that the sustained buying spree, compared to gold’s recent dip, shows that institutions could be positioning BTC ETFs as a new safe-harbor investment.
“Those inflows came during a period that included war risk, shifting expectations for US interest rates, and renewed volatility across commodities,” noted CryptoSlate. “Even in that backdrop, institutions continued to use the ETF wrapper to add or maintain Bitcoin exposure, while gold funds were experiencing large redemptions.”
Non-bitcoin funds were mixed last week, with ETH funds seeing net outflows and Solana and XRP funds notching modest inflows.
Open minds… In a recent interview, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said that the agency was open to new kinds of ETFs based on crypto and tokenization. “It really is a ‘come in and talk to us about what you’re trying to do,’ ” Peirce said. ”We want to work with you toward being able to experiment to see whether the market wants your products.”
CHAIN AGENTS
Are AI agents the future of crypto?
As AI adoption continues to ramp up across the economy, it is becoming clear that the technology is inextricably linked with another fairly nascent innovation: crypto.
It might be hard for AI agents to have bank accounts, for example. But what if they could interact with each other using crypto wallets? Or make prediction market trades on your behalf using stablecoins? For some, it’s already a reality.
Here’s what you need to know.
Coinbase is giving agents crypto wallets
Coinbase has been playing with agentic payments since 2024 and recently launched a “wallet infrastructure built specifically for AI agents,” allowing users to equip agents with spending, earning, and trading capabilities within minutes.
The feature, which can be combined with x402, an open agentic payments protocol started by Coinbase, is one of many investments the company is making into enabling agentic commerce
With Coinbase’s new wallets, agents can be programmed with spending limits, and utilize the Base blockchain without paying gas fees. Users can create agents that can monitor and adjust trading positions automatically, pay for their own API keys or computing power, or create their own content and monetize it on social media.
Agentic wallets are likely just the beginning of crypto companies exploring the intersection between blockchain and AI.
And World, OpenAI founder Sam Altman’s blockchain-based identity verification company, just launched a feature on the x402 protocol allowing AI agents to carry cryptographic proof that they’re backed by an actual human, with the goal of making commerce from AI agents “verifiable,” instead of it being seen as suspicious bot activity.
Stripe just launched an AI payments protocol
The payments firm, which processed around $2 trillion in transactions last year, launched its own payments system for AI agents this week, called “Machine Payments Protocol.”
The protocol, which mostly runs on Stripe’s stablecoin-focused blockchain Tempo, is designed to make it easier for AI agents to send and receive payments across multiple blockchains and payments systems.
Mastercard, Visa, Deutsche Bank, and Anthropic were among the partners Tempo tapped to assist with designing the blockchain, and Visa has reportedly partnered with Stripe to enable debit and credit card payments for AI agents.
Utilizing Tempo, AI agents can also participate in cross-border remittances, tokenized deposits, and global payouts for businesses, according to a blog post.
USDC issuer Circle is also investing in agentic payments, with CEO Jeremy Allaire noting in an earnings call last month that “Circle can play a really key role in this convergence between AI and stablecoins and blockchain,” specifically around AI agents that are consuming services from each other.
Like Stripe, the firm has its own stablecoin-focused blockchain (called Arc), and recently tested a new feature called “nanopayments,” which allow agents to hold funds and deploy them across networks for just fractions of a penny.
Agents are trading on prediction markets too
AI agents aren’t just making crypto payments – they’re also making predictions. As prediction markets continue to explode in popularity, reaching more than $6 billion in weekly trading volume last week, AI agents are emerging as a potential way for traders to gain an edge.
Since 2023, Swiss startup Valory has been building an ecosystem allowing agents to use prediction tools and data to trade on the potential outcomes of events.
According to Valory co-founder David Minarsch, prediction tools that utilize AI “have historically shown predictive accuracy up to 70% and higher.”
PolyStrat, which is the latest experiment from Valory, has shown promising results. Within a month of launch, the agent made more than 4,200 trades on Polymarket, and saw single-trade returns as high as 376%. Polystrat can be set for different trading strategies, data sources, or risk tolerances. And Minarsch says it's already seeing more than 37% of trades netting a profit.
Many prediction markets are based around major global events, macro economic data, or sporting competitions, where information is abundant and accessible. But the platforms are also filled with markets around smaller questions that remain largely unexplored.
“Humans often don’t bother digging for the information,” Minarsch said. “They can’t be bothered to make the effort. You just point the agent at the problem and it does the work.”
MARCH MADNESS
What do prediction markets say will happen in the NCAA tournament Round of 16?
The second weekend of March Madness is almost here. After a first week that saw favorites win almost all of their games, could an upset be in store for the Round of 16?
So far, traders have placed around $5 million in predictions on the Round of 16 games. Here’s what they think will happen.
Who will win: Duke vs. St. John’s
72%, Duke
What markets say: Traders have placed around $1 million on the matchup between Duke, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, and St. John’s, who is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999. Since the market opened on March 22, Duke has been the clear favorite for traders.
What analysts say: “The Red Storm continue to prove they were not seeded correctly after winning the Big East Tournament, but Duke will be ready for Rick Pitino's squad. The Blue Devils, behind Cameron Boozer, will win a thriller." – The Arizona Republic
Who will win: Illinois vs. Houston
60%, Houston
What markets say: Nearly $1 million in predictions have been placed on the matchup between Houston, last year’s tournament runner-up, and a talented Illinois team full of potential NBA talent. Houston, which beat Illinois in March Madness in 2022, has been the clear favorite since the market opened.
What analysts say: “No team turns it over less than Houston. It’s No. 1 in the nation, giving it up just over eight times per game, and it won’t lose that many to an Illinois team that’s among the worst in the country at forcing mistakes.” – College Football News
Who will win: Arizona vs. Arkansas
77%, Arizona
What markets say: Traders have placed around $750,000 on the matchup between No. 1 seeded Arizona and No. 4 seeded Arkansas, with Arizona holding its position as the clear favorite since the market opened.
What analysts say: “Schematically, Arizona is built to give Arkansas some problems. Arkansas' transition defense rates are in the 26th percentile nationally. It's not a strength. That's a problem against a Tommy Lloyd outfit that scores over 15 fastbreak points per game, which rates in the 97th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics.” – CBS Sports
Who will win: Michigan vs. Alabama
84%, Michigan
What markets say: Around $500,000 in predictions have been placed on the matchup between No. 1 seeded Michigan, and No. 4 seeded University of Alabama, with Michigan being the clear favorite. Alabama is playing in their fourth straight Sweet 16, and Michigan in their seventh out of their last eight NCAA tournament appearances.
What analysts say: “Without making at least eight more 3-pointers than Michigan, it's hard to find pathways for Alabama to win this one. But it's entirely possible because Alabama may have the three best shooters on the floor at all times.” – CBS Sports
TUNE IN
Check out the latest episode of “Evolving Money”
The new episode of “Evolving Money,” Coinbase’s award-winning podcast that explores how and why institutional investors are utilizing crypto, just dropped. It features Cosmo Jiang, general partner at Pantera Capital, and Omid Malekan, professor at Columbia Business School, discussing what really drives crypto market returns and how to build a diversified portfolio of digital assets.
And don’t forget to tune into our previous episodes from this season on tokenization and the integration of crypto with TradFi.
Listen today on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.
TOKEN TRIVIA
Which cryptocurrency uses the Lightning Network?
A
BTC
B
ETH
C
SOL
D
All of the above
Find the answer below.
Trivia Answer
A
BTC
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