There’s never a dull moment onchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:

Bitcoin

$62,078.00

󰍾

3.01%

Ethereum

$1,733.41

󰍾

3.81%

Tether

$0.999

󰍾

0.05%

BNB

$564.63

󰍾

3.42%

USDC

$1.00

󰍲

0.00%

XRP

$1.09

󰍾

3.70%

See the latest prices

MARKET BYTES

Crypto trades sideways following Iran ceasefire plan, interest-rate meeting

After weeks of downward trading, markets started the week better, following reports on Sunday that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. On Monday Bitcoin spiked above $67,000; ETH rebounded above $1,800; and altcoins including Hyperliquid, Solana, and XRP all surged.

By Wednesday, however, BTC was bouncing around $65,500 after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold interest rates steady — but also removed a projection from previous meetings that many traders took as a hint that a rate cut could come later this year.

“During much of the conflict, crypto has traded like a high-beta risk asset with geopolitical uncertainty coinciding with ETF outflows, higher yields, and weaker sentiment,” Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, told Bloomberg. “A successful agreement removes one of the major macro risks hanging over markets and could help support broader risk appetite, particularly if it contributes to lower oil prices and reduces inflation concerns.”

While prices remain well below 2026 highs set in early May, some market watchers are optimistic that this could mark the start of a bigger rally. Speaking about bitcoin, Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, said, “I think it’s ultimately going considerably higher.”  

Here’s more news you should know…

Fed holds interest rates steady at first meeting helmed by new chair Kevin Warsh

In the runup to today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates in the U.S., 99% of prediction market traders agreed that no change was in the cards — so it wasn’t exactly a surprise when the central bank held rates steady for the fourth meeting in a row. 

(Crypto traders generally see falling interest rates as a bullish signal because the combination of cheaper borrowing and lower returns on cash holdings tend to mean more capital flows to asset classes like stocks and crypto.)

But market-watchers were very curious to hear what the committee — and new Trump-appointed Fed chair Kevin Warsh — had to say following the meeting. In a brief statement, the committee noted that while inflation remains above the 2 percent target, “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” 

HYPE ETFs are booming as DeFi exchange continues to grow

Exchange-traded funds that buy Hyperliquid (HYPE) — the native token of the booming decentralized exchange of the same name — only launched a month ago, but they’ve already tallied around $172 million in inflows. HYPE itself is up around 200% since the beginning of the year. 

A major focus of Hyperliquid is perpetual futures (also known as perps), a type of derivative contract that enables traders to speculate on the price of an asset without needing to buy or own the underlying asset itself. Perps, which have rapidly gained in popularity in the last year, can also be traded via major exchanges including Coinbase. 

One advantage perps platforms have in a volatile market is that they can generate fees no matter which way prices are moving. “In fact, volatile markets often create more trading opportunities,” the CEO of one such platform told Decrypt. “When traders are actively hedging and repositioning, volumes stay strong, and that’s ultimately what drives protocol revenues. The market seems to be recognizing that.”

BOTTOMS UP?

5 top market watchers on what’s next for bitcoin

Earlier this month, bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024. In the weeks since, prices have begun to tick upwards, with some analysts and experts suggesting that we’ve seen BTC’s low point for this cycle, and others positing that things could still take another rough turn. 

Here’s what five major market watchers had to say. 

1. “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring” — Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital assets at Standard Chartered. 

The bank, which had cut its bitcoin price target this winter, reverted its position and issued a $100,000 price target for bitcoin by the end of the year. Kendrick added that he believes Ethereum will outperform bitcoin on the way there, and called bitcoin’s low of $59,000 on June 5, “the buying zone we all wanted.” 

2. “My recommendation is to avoid the crypto market for the summer as it tends to struggle during the coming months even when there isn’t a barrage of severe headwinds in its way” — Quinn Thompson, chief investment officer at Lekker Capital. 

In an investor note, Thompson pointed to several reasons crypto markets might not heat up until Q3 of this year — including investors rotating capital into potential blockbuster IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic, U.S. consumer sentiment sitting near record-lows, and bitcoin treasury firms potentially needing to sell their tokens.  

3. “My instinct is we probably have bottomed at this point, maybe at the $60,000 number, but nobody can say for sure” — Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong

In a post on X, Armstrong said that he remains bullish on bitcoin and used bitcoin’s oft-talked about “four year cycle” as a potential data point to indicate that the bottom could be in for bitcoin. Armstrong also recently pointed out that despite lagging crypto asset prices, other crypto-related sectors, like derivatives, stablecoins, and prediction markets, have seen explosive growth that could eventually be reflected in crypto prices.

4. "Our current view is that bitcoin is in the mid-to-late stages of the current market cycle downturn. We don’t see a true market bottom until late Q3 or early Q4 this year” — David Grider, partner at Finality Capital 

Grider, along with a number of crypto investment-fund executives, told The Block recently he has a cautious outlook toward digital assets due to macroeconomic uncertainties, crypto ETF outflows, and capital rotating toward AI investments or traditional markets. 

Richard Galvin, chief investment officer at Digital Asset Capital Management, echoed that sentiment, saying his firm is holding a “relatively neutral” outlook on bitcoin over the next 12 months. And Jack Platts, founder of Hypersphere Ventures, said that among his peers “it seems everyone is quite bearish on crypto.”

5. “We're all asking if the bottom is in, when what matters is whether the top is in" — Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise

Hougan, in a recent investor note, highlighted that the investment firms Galaxy Digital, Standard Chartered, and NYDIG all had differing opinions on whether bitcoin’s bottom is in. Still, they aligned on three main points: bitcoin’s bottom will come this year; bitcoin is closer to the bottom than the top; and that bitcoin will go on to have another bullish cycle.

With that in mind, Hougan says, BTC remains a “screaming buy” due to the long-term factors that are driving adoption, including rising government debt, inflation, and an increasingly digital global economy.

PREDICTION MARKETS

Who will win key early-round matches in the World Cup?

Who will win: England vs. Croatia 

What markets say: Traders are giving England’s side, led by Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, a 58% probability to win their opening World Cup match, while assigning a 25% chance at a draw. Croatia, who finished third at the 2022 World Cup, have a 19% probability to win. 

What analysts say: “I think there is general concern that England aren't a very good match for Croatia purely in terms of the pace that's within the English side. But in terms of taking on England, I don't think there's a concern necessarily that England are going to absolutely batter them or anything like that.” – ESPN

Who will win: Ghana vs. Panama

What markets say: Despite Ghana being ranked nearly 40 spots lower than Panama on the global rankings, traders see the African nation, led by Manchester City star Antonie Semenyo, as the favorites, assigning them a 44% probability to win, compared to 29% for Panama. 

What analysts say: “[Panama] are not swashbuckling in attack, with five CONCACAF teams outscoring them across all qualifying groups, but there is a robustness to their style that should not be underestimated by their World Cup opponents this summer.” – The Athletic 

Who will win: Colombia vs. Uzbekistan 

What markets say: Colombia are the heavy favorites, with a 71% probability to win, with Uzbekistan’s probability sitting at just 10%. Traders are also expecting a strong performance from the South American side, with there being nearly a 50/50 probability of them winning by two or more goals. 

What analysts say: “It was a shock when Colombia didn't make it to the 2022 World Cup, but they're back on the big stage now and it's likely a last dance for several of the veterans on the team. Desperate to make up for lost time, Colombia will be keen to start strong, but in their way stands a hardy outfit.” – ESPN

TOKEN TRIVIA

What is a dollar cost averaging?

Find the answer below.

Trivia Answer